AI Predictions
I'm putting these down on paper, let's see how I do:
Model intelligence has plateaued. The scaling hypothesis was rejected years ago, but labs and true believers keep it around like a ghost to keep people hopeful. We've mostly seen gains from improved tooling and chain of thought techniques. Chain of thought is useful but it shouldn't be counted as improved model intelligence: if you had the ability to make a model that performed as well as a CoT one without spending the extra tokens you'd just do that.
